National Eclipse

STATE-BY-STATE WEATHER OUTLOOK

The general consensus among weather experts is that the weather odds for a successful eclipse viewing on April 8 along the path of totality in the United States increase in favorability the farther south you are, with the best prospects in Texas. Conversely, the farther north you go, the greater the chance for clouds or bad weather. What follows is a state-by-state weather outlook, gleaned from a variety of sources, for each of the 13 U.S. states along which the path of totality will travel on April 8, 2024.

TEXAS—Texas is widely considered to have the best eclipse-day weather prospects in the United States. More specifically, eclipse weather forecasting site eclipsophile.com points out that, in Texas, "the north [or west] side of the track has a notably sunnier April climate than the south [or east]." In general, the farther south you are for the 2024 eclipse, the better your weather odds—and you can't get any farther south along the path of totality in the U.S. than Texas. Notwithstanding this happy weather outlook, it should be noted that thunderstorms are already a possibility in Texas in early April, although they tend to develop later in the afternoon when the eclipse shadow will have already passed.

OKLAHOMA—The weather outlook along the path of totality in Oklahoma is comparable to the relatively favorable prospects in northern Texas. The chances of cloudy skies increase only slightly along the eclipse path, although eclipse chasers should be wary of some higher elevation areas that could produce clouds in Oklahoma. There is also a chance that thunderstorms could develop along the path during this time of the year.

ARKANSAS—Again, as compared to the promising outlook in Texas, the overall potential for clouds rises only modestly along the eclipse path in Arkansas. However, as is the case with all mountainous regions, the high elevations of the Ouachita and Ozark mountains could result in the formation of clouds that might pose a problem on eclipse day. Also, the south or east side of the path in the upper portion of the state has a notably greater chance for clouds in April as compared to the rest of the path in Arkansas. As is the case in Texas, early-season thunderstorms are possible in Arkansas in April.

MISSOURI—The overall prospects for clear skies in Missouri is similar to the relatively favorable prospects in Arkansas. However, as is also the case in Arkansas, the south or east side of the eclipse track (i.e., the "bootheel" area of Missouri) has a greater chance of cloudy skies as compared to the north or west side of the path. Again, thunderstorms are possible.

ILLINOIS—By the time the eclipse path reaches Illinois, the biggest eclipse-day weather risk comes from springtime storms that are common in the mid-latitude states in April. These storms bring rain, sometimes snow, and always clouds. Besides, or maybe because of, the risk of storms, Illinois also has a greater overall chance of clouds in April than the eclipse path states that preceded it.

KENTUCKY—In terms of weather, the expected outlook within the narrow slice of Kentucky captured inside the eclipse path is about the same as what can be anticipated in Illinois—which is an increase in the overall chance of clouds on eclipse day and the possibility that spring storms could present a major problem.

INDIANA—Indiana takes over where Illinois left off as the overall cloudiness odds along the eclipse path continue to trend up, although gradually. Springtime storms with multiple days of cloud cover are a threat. April showers may bring May flowers, but they don't produce happy eclipse chasers.

OHIO—In Ohio, the gradually increasing trend of the possibility of cloudy skies along the eclipse path continues. But then something surprising happens. About halfway through the state, the centerline and the northern or western side of the eclipse path head out into Lake Erie. Conventional wisdom might hold that cold water equals cloudy skies. Not necessarily! Meteorologists think the frigid waters of Lake Erie in early April might actually inhibit the formation of clouds over and around the lake. Although an eclipse viewing on the water might be a chilly experience, it might also offer better weather prospects than locations farther inland. Of course, major springtime storms are still a possibility, resulting in a complete overcast that can't be mitigated by cold lake waters.

PENNSYLVANIA—The eclipse-day weather prospects along the path of totality in Pennsylvania are similar to those in Ohio: a greater chance of cloudy skies as compared to some of the preceding states, but the potentially cloud-busting effects of Lake Erie that are seen in Ohio also holds true in Pennsylvania. Also like in Ohio, seasonal storms are possible. As always, consult short-term weather forecasts in the days leading up to the eclipse for the best chance of success.

NEW YORK—Now squarely in the Northeast, the increasing possibility of cloudy skies along the path of totality seems to level off here in New York—but only for awhile. And, as is the case with Lake Erie to the west, weather experts think the cold lake waters of Lake Ontario could aid eclipse viewers by preventing clouds from forming above and around the lake. But when the eclipse path reaches the Adirondack Mountains, the chances of cloudy skies increase dramatically over the high peaks and observers will have to contend with the highest probability of clouds seen thus far along the eclipse path. As is the case everywhere in the Northeast, large storm systems can plague New York during this time of the year. Keep in mind, also, that many of the scenic mountain lakes might still be frozen on April 8 and snow in early April is still a distinct possibility.

VERMONT—The eclipse crosses over the Green Mountains in Vermont and, like in the Adirondacks back in New York, the wise eclipse chaser should be wary of cloudy skies resulting from these high elevations and consult short-term weather forecasts for the region. In addition, this entire region is prone to the kinds of major spring storm systems that can ruin an eclipse expedition.

NEW HAMPSHIRE—The potential for gloomy weather along the eclipse path in New Hampshire essentially mirrors those same worries in Vermont. The only difference is that the White Mountains replace the Green Mountains as a possible culprit in the formation of high elevation clouds.

MAINE—Maine's topography is a continuation of the mountainous terrain of the preceding series of states and the high probability of high elevation clouds persists. In fact, this stretch of eclipse track in Maine is perhaps the most prone to cloudy conditions in the entire U.S., especially on the western side of the state. The springtime low pressure systems common in this part of the country are a constant concern too. Don't be surprised if Maine is still covered in snow on April 8.